Oscar Predictions 2019

Posted on by christabelrose

It’s been a strange awards season and will no doubt be an even stranger Academy Awards tonight. Sadly I’ve not been able to spend quite the time I like to spend on these but I couldn’t let the Oscars go by without making my predictions. So here they are, rushed and last-minute, but here nevertheless…

 

BEST PICTURE: Roma

With the preferential ballot, Best Picture seems constantly difficult to predict these days and a surprise win from GREEN BOOK, THE FAVOURITE, BLACKkKLANSMAN or even BLACK PANTHER would be no surprise at all. But ROMA still feels like the clear and beautiful winner – as long as enough voters have actually watched it.

 

BEST DIRECTOR: Alfonso Cuaron

There is a chance Spike Lee could take this particular crown but Alfonso’s beautiful passion project encapsulates not just the director’s vision but also the very origins and influences of one of Hollywood’s most revered directors. So a second win for him seems certain.

 

BEST ACTRESS: Glenn Close

Glenn Close sealed the deal with her surprise win at the Golden Globes and a fantastic speech that put her top of everyone’s list. Nominated multiple times without a win, this looks to be the year the Academy finally chooses to crown her. If there’s an upset, my money’s on Olivia Colman who – until the Golden Globes – I would have predicted as the winner. And she could well still win.

 

BEST ACTOR: Rami Malek

Racking up the wins including SAG and BAFTA, Rami Malek looks to be one of the only dead certs on Oscar night. In many ways a pretty controversial choice but Rami Malek’s involvement in firing director Bryan Singer seems only to have added to his credentials and boosted his chances.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Regina King

Tricky one. Regina King wasn’t even nominated for a SAG award or a BAFTA but she still feels like she has the edge in this race. Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz look set to split the vote. Amy Adams is brilliant but VICE doesn’t seem to have the traction that could propel her to victory. If there’s an upset? I would say it’s most likely to be Marina de Tavira for ROMA.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Mahershala Ali

Mahershala feels like a dead cert for his second Oscar. But that’s not to rule out Richard E. Grant whose performance in CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? is getting a lot of buzz and whose enjoyment of the awards season circuit is sure to curry favour with voters. So watch this space for a surprise.

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Alfonso Cuaron – Roma

Both ROMA and COLD WAR are exceptionally beautiful and it’s sad that in multiple categories COLD WAR is set to lose out to the ‘other’ black and white foreign language film. But ROMA is a visual feast and the stunning motifs throughout, along with the steady sweep of Cuaron’s camera, point to an easy win for the Academy-Award winning director.

 

BEST EDITING: Vice

Interesting one. And a big award that looks set to buck the trend of tying with Best Picture. Could it be BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY, a film that lost its director and was therefore made in the edit? Could it be the well-loved BLACKkKLANSMAN? I’m going for the fun and dynamic VICE.

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: BlacKkKlansman

Now logic dictates opting for the WGA winner in this category, which would bring CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? to the fore. But I don’t think this script was strong enough to take the award and, with all the love for BLACKkKLANSMAN, I think Spike Lee could easily take this. As he did at the BAFTAs. I can see the Academy wanting to award Spike Lee and if ROMA’s to take the big prizes this could be the perfect place to give him a nod.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: The Favourite

I would be shocked if THE FAVOURITE didn’t take this. It’s a fresh twist on period with sharp dialogue and female politics delivered in a nuanced and scathing way – it’s all about the dialogue. And a story revolving around three fully-characterised lead women seems sure to register with voters. I reckon this is a lock.

 

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Roma

I’d quite like COLD WAR to take this one, given Roma’s set to take the big prize. But then it would be absurd not to give the best film of the year an award for best film in this category as well.

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY: Free Solo

Shamefully, I haven’t watched any of these this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if RBG took this but I’m opting for FREE SOLO.

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Favourite

Difficult. THE FAVOURITE or a chance for the Academy to award BLACK PANTHER? Hmm. I’m going for The Favourite.

 

BEST HAIR & MAKE-UP: Vice

I could see MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS easily winning in another year but … Christian Bale as Dick Cheney. VICE should take this.

 

BEST COSTUME: The Favourite

Another category where I can imagine BLACK PANTHER receiving a nod as recognition. But a Sandy Powell win for these elaborate costumes seems more likely.

 

BEST SCORE: If Beale Street Could Talk

I’m going for BEALE STREET because I think it’s a stunning score. But I feel like BLACKkKLANSMAN could take this.

 

BEST SOUND EDITING: A Quiet Place

I’m finding this one very difficult this year. The favourite seems to be FIRST MAN and one shouldn’t rule out the musicals. But a well-loved film that is all about sound feels like a natural choice so I’m risking it and going for A QUIET PLACE.

 

BEST SOUND MIXING: Bohemian Rhapsody

I’m stumped on this one too. I’d say it’s between the musicals so that’s either A STAR IS BORN or BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY. Ordinarily I’d go for A STAR IS BORN which feels like the more classic choice. But the blend of Rami Malek with Freddie Mercury’s voice could be what tips the balance so I’m going for that.

 

BEST SONG: Shallow – A Star Is Born

Surely Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper’s for the taking.

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Spider-Man: Into The Spiderverse

Seems like a lock.

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Avengers: Infinity War

FIRST MAN could take this. Space and all. But a big and brash Marvel film feels like the more obvious choice so I’m going for that.

 

Let’s see how it goes…

Oscar Predictions 2018

Posted on by christabelrose

With my fastest written predictions, I give you my picks for tonight’s Oscar ceremony…
BEST PICTURE – Get Out
This has to be the trickiest year to call in a long time with no clear frontrunners, even hours before the announcements are made. Made trickier by the preferential balloting that has caused surprise results for the last couple of years.
So, what to go for… The safe bet is THE SHAPE OF WATER. It’s well liked, leading the pack with 13 nominations. It won the PGA award which, historically, is the best predictor. Guillermo seems a lock for best director. But let’s bear in mind that with the preferential balloting, more and more we are seeing Picture and Director awards diverge: Moonlight and Damien Chazelle; Spotlight and Innaritu; 12 Years A Slave and Alfonso Cuaron… SHAPE is certainly a film that I can imagine a lot of people liking enough to put down somewhere on their ballot paper. But in a year like this, is that enough?
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI seems to have regained some momentum in prediction circles heading into the Oscar weekend. It won the Audience Award at Toronto. It won the BAFTA and, lest we forget, after LA and New York, the third largest concentration of voters hail from London. It’s likely to win two acting gongs on the night, one for Frances McDormand’s powerful portrayal of a woman avenging the death of her daughter which, in this year of Time’s Up, feels very pertinent to the wider conversation. But – and it’s a big but – there has been a lot of controversy over this film’s depiction of race and, more than that, criticism that it feels like an outsider’s view of small town America. But perhaps the biggest issue for this film is the lack of directing nomination for Martin McDonagh, an indicator that one of the largest branches of the Academy may not rate the film highly enough.
Now there are three other films I think we can safely assume are in the running for the top prize. I wouldn’t be surprised if DUNKIRK were to take this home and I can certainly see it being down somewhere on many people’s voting ballots (preferential ballot means a voter gives their ranked top five choices – once their first choice is knocked out of the running, their next vote becomes their top choice and so on). So it has a decent chance.
But I can’t get away from two things: that the new make-up of the Academy is younger, more diverse and no doubt more hungry to support something fresh and empowering. And then there’s the Moonlight factor – the indie darling that enough people across the Academy will have put down as a choice because they loved it or indeed because they felt it should be awarded. With that in mind, I had hope for a while that my film of the year LADY BIRD could be the surprise winner. It’s beloved and would be a great story in this year of Time’s Up to see a female-driven film – written, directed by and starring women – be lauded as the film of the night. I would LOVE this film to win. It has struck a chord with many for its honest and warm characterisation of parental relationships and growing up. Plus who doesn’t love Greta Gerwig and Saoirse Ronan? Having been lucky enough to see two Q+As with them on this film, I can imagine they’ve charmed a lot of people on the awards circuit.
And then the other choice. Jordan Peele’s GET OUT. Yes, it’s a genre film. But it’s also much more than that – using genre as a satirical vehicle to make a wider point about race in America. In many ways, it’s what a Best Picture should be – pushing boundaries, starting conversations, whilst also proving a box office hit with audiences. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this new set of Academy voters had this at least in their top three. In that respect, it ticks all the same boxes as LADY BIRD, but with the added advantage of being very clearly about something.
So with that in mind… My heart says LADY BIRD, my head says SHAPE OF WATER and my gut says GET OUT. I wasn’t as bold last year, but might as well make the daring choice now and go for my gut – GET OUT it is.
BEST DIRECTOR – Guillermo del Toro
I love that Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele have nominations this year and I would love to see Greta win. But Guillermo del Toro is a creative genius and has swept up all the awards on the road to the Oscars – he seems like a lock.
BEST ACTRESS – Frances McDormand
Apart from Meryl Streep (whose performance I don’t find surprising or different – would that Jessica Chastain could have had this slot for MOLLY’S GAME!), I would be very happy to see any of the nominees take this home. I loved Sally Hawkins, Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie in their respective films and I hope that one day they all win an Oscar. But for this year I’m going with Globe-winning, SAG-winning, BAFTA-winning Frances McDormand, knowing she’ll make a great speech for a great performance. If there’s a surprise? Think it would be between Sally and Saoirse.
BEST ACTOR – Gary Oldman
Again, seems another lock for this category with Gary Oldman having picked up every award running. If there’s a shocker? No doubt that would be 22-year-old Timothée Chalamet.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Allison Janney
My vote goes hands down to Laurie Metcalf for a wonderfully nuanced performance as Lady Bird’s mother. Lesley Manville would also be a brilliant choice. But Allison Janney has the track-record with some of the key wins already taken so, whilst I still hope it might be Metcalf, I’m predicting Janney.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – Sam Rockwell
Another lock, unless second favourite Willem Dafoe causes an upset.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – Call Me By Your Name
Seems highly unlikely anything can beat James Ivory’s adaptation in this category.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – Get Out
And now the tricky screenplay category. Again, I would love to see Greta Gerwig take this home and I think if she wins anything it will be here. THREE BILLBOARDS also has the potential to take this but let’s not forget the WGA win for GET OUT which ticks the daring and original boxes to the screenplay category. Jordan Peele it is.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – Blade Runner 2049
Finally, a win for the masterful Roger Deakins? Blade Runner was visually mesmerising so seems like this will be his year.
BEST EDITING – Dunkirk
I keep changing my mind here. I can see BABY DRIVER emulating the BAFTAs and sneaking in. I can also see I, TONYA’s funny cut-aways leading to a surprise win. But this is a good category for people to award one of the favourite films of the year – i.e. a Best Picture nominee. I think Dunkirk will take it, although I know I wasn’t the only one who took a moment to find their feet between the different timeframes of this film so could that make it suffer?
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – A Fantastic Woman
Shockingly, I haven’t seen any of the nominees here this year. I would love THE SQUARE to win as I think Ruben Ostlund is a brilliant filmmaker. And of course starring everyone’s favourite Handmaid which may help it gain exposure with voters. But it feels like this Chilean film starring a trans actor – with Daniela Vega also presenting one of the awards on the night – is the most likely winner.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE – Faces Places
Who doesn’t love a bit of JR? And this is a film about creativity (an Academy favourite) and filmmaker Agnes Varda with an eye-catching (what else!) campaign from JR who has been travelling around with a cardboard cut-out of Varda while she remains in her native France.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE – Coco
It’s a wonderful film and it’s the favourite. Coco it is.
BEST SOUND MIXING – Dunkirk
For sound, go with war. And so I shall.
BEST SOUND EDITING – Dunkirk
In both categories.
BEST COSTUME – Phantom Thread
It’s a film about a designer and the costumes are beautiful. BEAUTY & THE BEAST feels like a traditional win and perhaps SHAPE could take another win here, but I’m going for PTA.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN – The Shape Of Water
Unless Blade Runner sneaks in here, I can’t see anything else winning for Production Design. Such an imaginative and rich world.
BEST HAIR & MAKE-UP – Darkest Hour
The make-up team in Darkest Hour truly did an amazing job transforming Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill. Coupled with the fact this is a Best Picture nominee, seems the inevitable winner here.
BEST SCORE – The Shape Of Water
I’ll go for Alexandre Desplat.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG – The Greatest Showman
It seems like Remember Me from COCO has become the clear favourite in this category but, frankly, it’s not as exciting or empowering as This Is Me from THE GREATEST SHOWMAN. I know a few people (you know who you are) who have become obsessed with this soundtrack and while the film itself may not be hot on the awards circuit, I hear people in Tinseltown remain huge fans of this song. Not as good as Sufjan Stevens’ haunting Mystery Of Love, but I think the Showman has it here.
BEST VFX – Blade Runner 2049
I know a lot of people are going for Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes and I can easily see that winning. But Blade Runner was just stunning and off the back of its BAFTA win I’m going for this.

Oscar Predictions 2017

Posted on by christabelrose

Guess what? It’s Oscar Day! Herewith some last minute (and, I admit, fairly rushed) predictions…

BEST PICTURE

La La Land

Now I know there’s been a lot of fuss this year over the mile-ahead frontrunner, La La Land, but let me just take a minute to say I personally think this has been a fantastic year of films. All nominees have their dissenters but compared with last year’s macho-fuelled bunch, this has been a collection of heartbreaking, powerful and life-affirming films. I have seen people divide over Arrival (‘it’s boring’, ‘it’s fine’, ‘the twist was obvious’, ‘I didn’t understand it’) but I am firmly in the camp of those that think this is a brilliant film about the subtle power of language and communication to cross boundaries and conquer loneliness. I’m a language geek and a big Villeneuve fan, so perhaps my views are inevitable, but I loved it. Lion was a beautiful film – sun-soaked cinematography, heartbreaking acting and a truly transcendent score. It’s a film that’s stayed and stayed with me. Whatever you think of Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge was a surprisingly brilliant war film which allowed a man of faith to take centre stage. Manchester By The Sea is another devastating and raw film that remains with you for a long time after. Along with the haunting Moonlight, which is surely the most credible threat here: three acts made of quiet and subtle vignettes for this coming-of-age story that is beloved by those who want to see a heavy-hitter take home the gong, and for the kind of story rarely seen onscreen.

And then there’s La La Land… Now I loved this movie when I first saw it at the London Film Festival and saw it again in a packed cinema when it was released here in London. Again, perhaps inevitably for someone who grew up dreaming in Hollywood classics and aspiring one day to be a part of them, it resonated. The combination of Damien Chazelle, Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling was always going to be a winner with me. Now I agree, it’s not a perfect film – I think it loses its way two-thirds through and it may be a little lighter than some of its fellow nominees. But I said right after I first saw it that it would take the Academy crown because it’s escapist in a time of great anger and global upheaval. And yes, it allows Hollywood to be a little narcissistic (think The Artist) but it’s a film about dreamers playing to a voting crowd of dreamers – of course they’re going to love it. Is it the most profound film of the year? No. But you can’t deny it’s captured the hearts of even those who barely go the cinema and that is something to applaud in a time where independent cinema is straining to draw audiences out of their homes.

It’s a great year for film and we all have our favourites, or those we think deserve to win because they speak so deeply on topics of grief and loss and the state of our world. But I’m here to say it’s okay if La La Land wins the Oscar! Which, unless Moonlight can pull off a huge shock, it will.

BEST DIRECTOR

Damien Chazelle

I was rooting for underdog Damien Chazelle to win for the incredible Whiplash a couple of years back but, inevitably, it was not to be. Now Chazelle has made a magical film that has captivated audiences far and wide. It’s a juggernaut and, as its helmer, Chazelle seems a sure-fire winner. If there were to be an upset? I would keep my eyes on Barry Jenkins for Moonlight.

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck (with Denzel close behind)

Casey Affleck’s performance in Manchester By The Sea is one to break your heart. It is nuanced, quiet and powerful. For a long while, Affleck felt like the sure bet. But then came the reminders of Affleck’s past and in particular his treatment of women on the set of I’m Still Here. They’ve certainly soured his chances and with a SAG award going to Denzel Washington, this is one race that is now set on a knife edge, almost too close to call. So I’m in two minds about the winner here. My head says Denzel, my gut still says Casey. So let’s go with my gut (and watch as my head smirks in triumph.)

BEST ACTRESS

Emma Stone

Everyone loves La La Land and everyone loves Emma Stone. At least, that’s what the award wins so far would have us believe. While I would love to see Natalie Portman’s brilliant performance for Jackie win here, it would be a shock if Emma Stone didn’t take this.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali

Another sure bet. With a host of awards already under his belt and for a film that voters will want to award somewhere, this is Ali’s for the taking. Personally, I would hands down award this to Dev Patel for his heartbreaking star turn in Lion and there a some who think he has a chance with a BAFTA under his belt, but on the international stage that win currently feels doubtful. Then again, BAFTA last year predicted Mark Rylance’s surprise win but I’d be surprised if Mahershala didn’t claim this.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis

For Viola Davis to lose would be one of the biggest shocks of the night. She is a well respected and loved actress and people want to see her take this home. She’s swept up this season, paving the way for her, finally, to take home a little gold man.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Manchester By The Sea 

I have to admit a slight vested interest in this one (coming to a small screen near you in the near future) but I’m going for Kenny Lonergan to win this award. La La Land is less deftly crafted and this will be one place where voters might therefore want to award one of the other lauded and loved frontrunners of the year.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Moonlight 

The WGA awards have thrown a spanner in the works. There, Moonlight won for best original screenplay (different rules to the Academy) and Arrival for best adapted. I read Arrival a couple of years back (then called Story Of Your Life) and fell in love with the writing. But Moonlight is without doubt a film that has really affected people and this feels like the kind of place where voters will choose to reward both the film and its creator, Barry Jenkins.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Salesman

If you’d asked me before the Trump travel ban, I would have said Toni Erdmann is the clear winner here. But then Trump did what he did and Asghar Farhadi decided to boycott the Oscars, knowing that his fellow countrymen might no longer be able to enter the United States. This feels like an award that will send a powerful political statement and I’m sure there will be many protest votes going Farhadi’s way here.

BEST DOCUMENTARY

OJ: Made In America

It feels strange picking something that has been shown on TV and is several hours long but OJ really does seem set to win this. No doubt helped by the fact some voters are mistaking this for the American Crime Story show that also aired this year. But keep an eye on Ava DuVernay’s 13th (with a BAFTA win under its belt) and the documentary on James Baldwin, I Am Not Your Negro.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Zootopia

It’s the favourite and I would be surprised if it didn’t win here.

BEST EDITING

La La Land

A classic companion piece to best picture, so I’m sticking with La La Land.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

La La Land

This I find tricky to pick. I can’t help feeling La La Land is going to fall down in a couple of un-obvious places. Could it be here? There are so many strong contenders for this one, Lion (which won the American Society of Cinematographers award), Arrival and Moonlight all possible winners. But voters love how LA looked in La La Land so…

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

La La Land

I so very very nearly chose Arrival here – I just have that niggling feeling that La La Land will trip up somewhere and Arrival feels like a strong contender here. Likewise Hail, Caesar! and Fantastic Beasts could claim this award, but… It just feels like La La’s year.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Jackie

A lot of people are plumping for another La La victory here but I’m going with BAFTA-winning, period Jackie for this more traditional choice.

BEST HAIR & MAKE-UP

Suicide Squad

To be honest, I’m finding this one a tricky call and wouldn’t be surprised by any of the winners. Yes, even A Man Called Ove. So I’m going with one I’ve seen!

BEST SOUND EDITING

Hacksaw Ridge

Ah the sound awards, a notoriously tricky pair… Often the one people have no idea about these and vote identically. Again, La La Land is a musical and sound matters there. But then we have war movie Hacksaw Ridge (and war movies tend to have the edge in editing). So I’m splitting these – Hacksaw for the sound effects of war…

BEST SOUND MIXING

La La Land

… And for mixing, I’ll go with the musical.

BEST SCORE

La La Land

I personally would love to see Lion win this award. Time and time again, this score had tears rolling down my face. Jackie too feels like a strong contender here, capturing something of Jackie’s psychological state. But then we come back to La La Land. Can you really see anything other than this musical win here?

BEST SONG

City Of Stars – La La Land

Need I say more? Perhaps an upset could come in a split of the vote with ‘Audition’ from the same film, but it feels unlikely.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The Jungle Book

The consensus so far seems to be for this live action adaptation for the Classic Disney film. People love the intricate jungle and creatures brought to life in VFX so I would be surprised if it didn’t take home the gong.

Oscar Predictions 2016

Posted on by christabelrose

 

An-Oscar-statue-is-seen-during-the-nominations-announcements-for-the-88th-Academy-Awards

 

The moment is finally here and in under 48 hours time we will know the winners of the grand finale of this year’s awards season – the Academy Awards. But just who will those winners be? Well, here are my predictions…
BEST PICTURE: The Revenant

A few weeks ago, the big prize looked too close to call, split between early frontrunner and SAG-ensemble taker Spotlight, PGA-winner The Big Short and then The Revenant and Mad Max. Ordinarily I would go with the sure-fire bet of the PGA-winner but with Innaritu’s second DGA in a row in the bag along with a BAFTA win, The Revenant feels like it has the momentum going into the home stretch. See below, but I’m predicting The Big Short will only take home one other award, which really isn’t enough for a Best Picture, although not unheard of (1953 being the last time). The surprise could come in the shape of George Miller’s juggernaut which could very well cause a few upsets. Certainly, I predict the tally for most statuettes on the night will be split between Mad Max and The Revenant and a lot of people love the former, but I’ll give the edge to Revenant here. (My secret hope, in line with Pete Hammond of Deadline’s wonderful theory à la The Chariots Of Fire win – is that the voting will be so split it will open the way for Room to swoop in with a surprise victory. Unlikely, but you never know!)

BEST DIRECTOR: Inarritu

This would be quite the scoop for Inarritu if he did pull off the two main prizes two years in a row, and the third year in a row for a Mexican director. While I wasn’t the biggest fan of The Revenant (interestingly, men I’ve spoken to love this film, the women got bored), there’s no doubt Inarritu is a truly visionary director and a humble, deserving man. No mean feat to have pulled this film off straight after his busy awards schedule last year, compared with the visual feast of Mad Max which took George Miller many years of passion and dedication to pull off. Again, a film I found to lack a decent story but in terms of director’s vision, George Miller could certainly be the one to take a surprise win here. And let’s not forget Adam McKay for The Big Short for a film that many voters loved, particularly his handling of humour and tragedy in a timely and relevant film. But with the DGA and the BAFTA, Inarritu looks set to be crowned again.

BEST ACTOR: Leo DiCaprio

It’s been a long time coming but Leo has swept up every award going and this feels like the vote of a crowd who finally wants to see Leo give that speech. I would argue this is not the strongest year for this category by quite some way, and that makes it all the more clear for Leo to take his win.

BEST ACTRESS: Brie Larson

This is a beautiful and heart-wrenching performance that deserves every prize going. Larson should have been nominated for Short Term 12 (far too indie for the Oscars, but a wonderfully understated, raw performance). It seems everyone else agrees – this is Larson’s for the taking.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Alicia Vikander

I would not be surprised if Kate Winslet caused an upset here. She won the Globe and the BAFTA, after all. But let’s not forget that those two awards are comprised of a good deal of non-Academy voters and those on Winslet’s home turf. Alicia Vikander has been the darling of the awards circuit and in my opinion had a far stronger performance in The Danish Girl than her Oscar-winning co-star, mostly because the film relied on her more straightforward role to ground it. Along with that all important SAG win, there is great love for Ex Machina in Hollywood right now and more than one standout role a year certainly helps solidify a win (think of McConaughey’s year). It’s also worth remembering that Vikander was nominated for Lead Actress for this same role at the BAFTAs but lost out to favourite Brie Larson. This all feels very reminiscent of Rachel Weisz’s win for Supporting Actress in The Constant Gardener, shortly after losing out the lead gong to eventual Oscar winner Reese Witherspoon in London.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Sly Stallone

Tricky category this year as Stallone wasn’t even nominated for a SAG award. Then again, eventual winner Idris Elba wasn’t nominated here, leaving no clear frontrunner. Mark Rylance could certainly give Sly a run for his money and old favs Mark Ruffalo and Christian Bale can’t be ruled out, along with Tom Hardy’s turn in one of the year’s most praised films, but the heat seems on for Stallone.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Spotlight

The wins just won’t stop for this screenplay, making it very hard for Compton and Bridge Of Spies to catch up.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Big Short

As with Spotlight above, The Big Short is destroying the competition in every other award going. It’s a shame not to see more of a competition here, especially with some great work in all the other nominated films (Room being my favourite), but The Big Short is an inventive Big Picture favourite.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Revenant

With some stunning work in Carol, Sicario and of course Mad Max this could be anyone’s prize. But the Malick-style photography for The Revenant is breathtaking (lest we forget, Lubezki was nominated for Tree Of Life). Lubezki’s on a roll with his latest choices – Birdman last year, Gravity before, winning Oscars for both – and it feels like he has this one in the bag to make it a third straight year of Oscar glory.

BEST EDITING: Mad Max

Again, a category where quite a few of the nominees have a large fanbase so we could see a win here for The Big Short or The Revenant, especially if either of them were to win the main prize. But the inventiveness of Mad Max lends greater weight to its chances here.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Son Of Saul

Now, I’ll be honest I haven’t seen this year’s Grand Prix winner from Cannes but there are some fantastic films in this year’s category. Theeb and Mustang are just wonderful and two of my favourite films of the last couple of years, both brilliantly capturing two very different takes on childhood experience with great beauty and sensitivity. Tobias Lindholm’s A War, too, is a great take on the war in Afghanistan and the personal battles faced by a family man in such circumstances. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mustang were to take this category as a lot of people are similarly raving about the film and Theeb can’t be discounted either, having recently sold out worldwide and won the Carl Foreman award for director Naji Nowar at the BAFTAs. But Son Of Saul tackles the kind of powerful and tricky subject matter that befits an Oscar win.

BEST DOCUMENTARY: Amy

Cartel Land could bring in a surprise (and equally deserved) win here, but Amy is a powerful film and Academy voters love giving docs about performers this gong (just think of Twenty Feet From Stardom), especially one so tragic as this.

BEST ANIMATED FILM: Inside Out

Unusually for an Animated Film, this film also has a Best Original Screenplay nod and has struck an emotional chord with just about everyone in the industry. Anomilisa could be the alternative choice, but I’ll go with Inside Out.

BEST SOUND EDITING: Mad Max

Now this is a tricky one. Or rather, a tricky two. The notoriously misunderstood categories of Sound Mixing and Editing lead to voters choosing from what they think fits for a win, often giving a nod to their preferred film. The sound in Mad Max and The Revenant have both been lauded so far this season and they certainly feel like the two obvious choices here. But how will it pan out? For the action sequences, I’m going for Mad Max here.

BEST MIXING: The Revenant

And for the delicate sound work and silences, I’m predicting The Revenant will take this one.

BEST COSTUME: Mad Max

For a long time I was touting Sandy Powell’s beautiful work in Carol for this award but the film just doesn’t have the love that was expected. This award often goes to the bigger, more period pieces and The Danish Girl is definitely gaining heat here but the originality of Mad Max cannot be underestimated, especially with the wins it has already garnered.

BEST HAIR & MAKE-UP: Mad Max

In this category of three, this certainly has the most original and daring work. Could it be The Revenant? Maybe, but this feels like a fairly safe bet.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Mad Max

Could The Martian sneak in here? Perhaps. But again, as with so many of these technical awards, Academy voters will no doubt be wanting to award the sheer visionary originality of Mad Max.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

A film loved by many and a great way to give it a nod. Who knows, it may go to Mad Max, but Star Wars has the edge.

BEST SCORE: The Hateful Eight

There are some great nominees in this category (Bridge Of Spies, Carol) but this score is the clear favourite among voters and predictors alike and it would be a surprise were it not to win.

BEST SONG: ‘Til It Happens To You’ from The Hunting Ground – Lady Gaga and Diane Warren

It’s worth noting that the artists’ names don’t appear on the ballot paper whereas the films (such as Spectre, Fifty Shades) do. Will that work to the disadvantage of Til It Happens To You? Perhaps, but enough people in the industry know Gaga and Warren to give them this award, and for a heartbreaking song at that.

Sonder In Monochrome

Posted on by christabelrose

“Sonder – n. the realization that each random passerby is living a life as vivid and complex as your own—populated with their own ambitions, friends, routines, worries and inherited craziness—an epic story that continues invisibly around you like an anthill sprawling deep underground, with elaborate passageways to thousands of other lives that you’ll never know existed, in which you might appear only once, as an extra sipping coffee in the background, as a blur of traffic passing on the highway, as a lighted window at dusk.” (The Dictionary Of Obscure Sorrows)

I give you a portfolio of photos on the feeling of ‘sonder’ from across the year, all taken with Hipstamatic Classic: John S / Blackeys Extra Fine Combo.

 

The Streets Of Paris

Posted on by christabelrose

In the week following the terrible events of 13th November, Ernest Hemingway’s A Moveable Feast sold out across Paris. When you look at his richly evocative prose, it’s no wonder – it captures the enduring beauty of a Paris we all love and those passages tinged with sadness feel ever more poignant after the city’s recent tragedy:

“You expected to be sad in the fall. Part of you died each year when the leaves fell from the trees and their branches were bare against the wind and the cold, wintery light. But you knew there would always be the spring, as you knew the river would flow again after it was frozen. When the cold rains kept on and killed the spring, it was as though a young person had died for no reason.” (A Moveable Feast, Ernest Hemingway)

Last weekend, I took a trip to Paris. I suppose I expected to find a city still in deep mourning and, of course, the feeling of sadness still very much rings through the air. But even in its mourning, this is a city united and shining through with those characteristics so often attributed to it. The lights still burn brightly; the streets are paved with tragic memorials, and yet are vibrant with the colours of the tricolore; and this wonderfully cultured and deeply artistic city has seen thousands flock to Spray For Paris, defiance and solidarity emblazoned proudly on ever street corner. As Hemingway so aptly put it:

“There is never an ending to Paris and the memory of each person who has lived in it differs from any other. We always returned to it no matter who we were or how it was changed or with what difficulties, or ease, it could be reached.” (A Moveable Feast, Ernest Hemingway)

Here’s my portfolio of Paris right now – a city painfully tossed, but far from sunk.

(All photos taken with Hipstamatic Classic or Canon 550D)

 

Venezia In Hipsta

Posted on by christabelrose

It’s hard to describe setting sight on Venice for the first time. Anyone who has watched half a dozen films, read a few books, loved Shakespeare or the Romantics, heard of Casanova or wondered at a Canaletto, or even just opened a travel magazine – just about anyone and everyone has an impression of Venice.  But it’s nothing to the reality.

Setting foot on a water taxi as you head out of the airport feels like a wonderful gimmick, until you realise just how essential a mode of transportation it really, truly is. As the boat propels you towards your destination – that dreamy city, floating on the sea – you’re still not prepared for what’s about to meet your eyes. Because when you arrive on the Grand Canal, it dawns on you that it isn’t just as magical as it looks and sounds in second-hand images and impressions – it’s far more so than you could have imagined. The colours, the air, the architecture and the light are an incredible vision for you to feast your eyes on and soak up as you wander the age-old streets.

My first trip to Venice? That was this year. Just a couple of days, but now I long to go back and discover more of this beautiful city. Here, in these hipstamatic shots, are my first impressions of the Queen of the Adriatic.

Bodies On The Beach

Posted on by christabelrose

There’s something fascinating about our willingness to shed clothes in front of a crowd in the hot summer months with the sun beating down. Bodies are laid bare, every wrinkle, every crease on show for the world.

This is a short photographic portfolio on just that – bodies on the beach, in the sand and under the water. All taken with Hipstamatic Classic.

 

Final Oscar Predictions 2015

Posted on by christabelrose

Oscars lined up

We are mere hours away from this year’s ceremony and soon it will all be over. Frocks will be donned, dreams will be made and even more will be dashed, and most importantly we’ll find out if I’ve stayed top of the office sweepstake for the third year in a row.

But this is a tricky year. I have been studying all I can over the last few days and deliberating hard. It’s down to the wire now and I’ve decided to make a few changes. Will it pay off? It did last year, but who knows…

BEST PICTURE: Birdman

It’s still close, but the surprise Spirit award last night seems to be confirming Birdman as the favourite over its key rival Boyhood.

BEST DIRECTOR: Richard Linklater

Could still be Inarritu, but voting patterns seem to be suggesting people are opting to split their Picture / Director votes.

BEST ACTOR: Eddie Redmayne

I almost changed this to Michael Keaton as the heat builds for the Birdman star, but let’s not forget that all important SAG win.

BEST ACTRESS: Julianne Moore

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: J.K. Simmons

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Patricia Arquette

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Birdman

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Imitation Game

I’ve changed my mind – an action I will perhaps regret. Could it be Whiplash? Or even American Sniper?

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Birdman

BEST EDITING: Boyhood

My heart would love the other favourite, Whiplash, to win but my head still nods towards Boyhood.

BEST SOUND EDITING: American Sniper

BEST SOUND MIXING: Whiplash

But I won’t be surprised if Sniper takes the sound double.

BEST COSTUME: Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST HAIR & MAKE-UP: Guardians Of The Galaxy

Another last minute change. And could be one to regret when Grand Budapest takes it!

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Interstellar (change from Apes)

Now, everyone’s going for Interstellar and I certainly would if voting but I just can’t get out of my head that the Guild awards mostly went to Apes. That, coupled with the Hollywood Reporter’s honest oscar ballots having largely pushed for Apes, I’m switching from the Guardians to the Dawn.

UPDATE: I’m switching to Interstellar. A last minute bid to play it safe? Perhaps, but something’s telling me it may be best to go with the flow on this one after all… Third switch lucky?

BEST SCORE: Theory Of Everything

BEST SONG: Glory, Selma

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Ida

BEST ANIMATED FILM: How To Train Your Dragon 2

Could Big Hero 6 rule the day?

BEST DOCUMENTARY: Citizen Four

Another where I’m inches from changing, this time to Virunga.

Time will tell, time will tell.

Happy Oscars, everyone!